Archive for the ‘Markets’ Category

Looking Back at the Strategy of Why Some Succeed — and Many Fail

Monday, March 15th, 2010

by Mark P. Dangelo

www.Innovative-Relevance.com

It was a decade ago, at the peak of the NASDAQ Composite, that the world began to truly comprehend the potential of the “nets” (i.e., Internet, intranets, extranets, and more recently the “clouds” and mobile 4G).  As new firms rose to trailblazer prominence (e.g., Amazon, AOL, Atomic Tangerine, Egg, and others), the phrase “brick and mortar” increasingly became linked with traditional, unwieldy, hierarchical, and candidly, resistant to change enterprises “destined to go the path of the dinosaur.” 

Yet, what was once dismissed out-of-hand (i.e., layering[i]) is now set to become a top-5 strategy challenge for every management team, vendor, and outsourcer surviving in this decade.  A critical question remains if organizations have the vision and humility to leverage the past, while innovating for the future.

A Decade for the Record Books

Since 2000, the removal of the old became a classic win-lose corporate context framed by:

·         enterprise solutions (e.g., SAP, Oracle, and PeopleSoft),

·         consultants, outsourcers, and advisors (e.g., Accenture, TCS, ACS, and McKinsey), and

·         channel-specific solution providers (e.g., Cisco, Sun, and IBM). 

Within the finance and mortgage groups (FMG’s), the implementation value chain solutions became inverted with technology ideals frequently trumping business models, as volume, any volume drove people, and processes over sound management judgment. 

Inadvertently, brick and mortar principles were perceived as outdated and discarded as organizations chased the markets – and the most debt-laden homeowner in history.  With 2010 set to produce the largest volume of delinquencies and foreclosures on record perpetuated by a jobless recovery (9%-10% until late 2011), the surface indicators might support the frustration that once again, we need to start over.  Throw out the legacy models and lessons learned in favor of new approaches and technologies.

Today, pundits declare that the FDIC interventions, TARP injections, and Federal Reserve market actions are merely perpetuating the foundational decay long hidden within traditional FMG’s, operating on axioms defined back in the 1930’s. 

The belief remains that the greatest financial meltdown ever (in real USD lost) was just waiting to happen.  It could not be stopped even if we understood what “irrational exuberance” really meant.  All it needed for the traditional firms to fail were vast real estate bubbles spread across developed nations to provide the spark that lead to the vanishing of 10%-12% of global wealth (since 2007).

Learning, Layering, and Looking Forward

Indeed it is time for sustainable change, new ideas, fresh industry blood, and elimination of systems that benefited so few.  So, why reexamine 20th Century principles that have already been cast aside by 21st Century attitudes and doctrines?  In a virtually connected world that never sleeps, who needs brick and mortar dogma when continuous technological innovation is what consumers are demanding?  Why indeed. 

Nevertheless, when examining those “Jurassic” systems with their layers of front and back office control procedures, history has now shown that the brick and mortar strategic operating principles remained very viable and stable.  When glancing backwards, it is the techniques and underlying implementation methods that have been permanently transformed (see Figure 1 for a list of principles, demands, and techniques). 

As portrayed in Figure 1, it is precisely those brick and mortar operations that not only survived (albeit slightly dented), but continue to grow – JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America to name but a few.  Moreover, each FMG holds valuable lessons learned — as well as publically exposed pitfalls.  If the U.S., like the new stress test ordered for the UK banking community, enters a pause or retracing of economic growth in 2010 (i.e., double bottom), the value g leaned from the surviving FMG brick and mortar principles may be the difference between survival – and receivership.

Layering Tackles Strategy, Complexity, and Uncertainty

Layering for 2010-2013 is best defined as the utilization of principle driven models (i.e., process, business, and technology across the mortgage pillars of origination, servicing, and securitization).  This often missed strategic approach allows organizations to employ the “best-in-class” solutions, products, and services even if they might be viewed as competitive (see Figure 2). 

It is the assembly of these “building blocks” that provides the distinction and profitability so badly demanded within struggling FMG’s.  Stated more pointedly, how many of those “pure-play” offerings survive after just five years?  With VC investments now just 30%-35% of 2006 levels, you only have to look at their investment web pages to notice the portfolio rot driven by a failure to anticipate consumer change and uncertainty. 

If truth be told, the deployment of layering is inherent within all viable business models – domestic or global – as their usage surrounds the assembly of strategies, processes, technology, and people.  Analogous to the building of a foundation with stone, cement, and metal, the use of layering for sustainable business resonates with profitable innovators.  It is now fundamental criteria in investor minds as well.

As shown in Figure 2, if the “foundation” of layers cannot be assembled properly (e.g., the laying of brick for a wall meeting industry “building codes”), the ensuing channels, offerings, and markets will collapse onto the basement floor – much like investors in RMBS and CMBS experienced during the last four years.  Yet, are organizations fully equipped with the skills and abilities to critically examine the successes and failures?  What about the performance of partners and channel providers?  Or will it become a situation where teams are sent out to perform “bring me a rock” analysis?

Stated bluntly for those who still fail to see the building block challenge and financial opportunities, if everyone utilizes the same standards and electronic delivery strategies, how come everyone isn’t equally successful?  The aforementioned are merely the vehicles of delivery – not the layering of complex business requirements that if assembled wrong, lead to failure.  In some cases, career ending failure.

In Closing

If you have any doubts on the strategy of business and technology layering, then take a look at the survivors from the companies previously mentioned.  What were the key principles that lead them as pathfinders succeed and adapt, while others failed or were acquired?  Did they lack technology, people or the “right” idea?  Did they shun brick and mortar principles entirely or selectively apply the fundamentals that worked for their business operations and technological implementations?  Did they let their egos drive their actions?

So now, 10 years after the great market corrections of 2000, it is the innovative business leaders who are gleaning safe and sound practices from the old brick and mortar.  For vendors and outsourcers, those operational leaders that can deliver scalable, interoperability layers of processes and technologies will be the household names across the industry.  How many will act?  How many will continue to be froze in place holding on to the ideals misplaced and misrepresented?  We can all think of a few.

Enterprises (i.e., the core business, their vendors, and outsourcing providers) able to rapidly adapt to changing consumer needs, and more recently, radical mutations of homeowner behaviors will be able to weather any downturn or changing market conditions.  It seems the lessons and principles of the past have become the guides of the future.

Funny, sometimes to go positively forward, you must start out in reverse. 



[i] Analogous to a “method of propagating plants by covering a branch or shoot with soil so that it takes root while still attached to the parent plant.”

Financial Times Blog Response — Rally shows moral hazard is still alive

Wednesday, March 10th, 2010

Indeed, the moral hazard still remains and looms over all transactions entering and exiting the markets.  Yet, a key challenge lost to the regulators and politicians resides with a comprehensive restructuring of the markets the banks operate within. 

 

More to the point, if we are concerned with the banks, their risks, and the leverage they assume, it must be holistically examined as part of their business operations – residential mortgages, commercial lending, HELOC’s, securitization, insurance, and so on.  Addressing the macro issues and concerns without fixing the underlying micro models and processes of operation is akin to painting a car that doesn’t run.

 

Each of the aforementioned areas is of great concern for US and UK taxpayers.  With cross-border exchanges and operations the norm for the last two decades, the use of “paper” walls of regulation will do little to address the fundamental causes of the market’s dysfunctional behaviors. 

 

Perhaps it is time to “think big, but start small,” while iterating our markets to success?  After all, we have debated changes since 2008.  What really has been done outside of throwing money at the problems? 

Financial Times Blog Response — America must do more to help its homeowners

Thursday, March 4th, 2010

The facts and growing concern raised in this article did not happen overnight.  There were many who identified the building risks — but when money is easy and profits high, no one cared to listen especially within the mortgage industry. 

 

The fundamental point missed here is resides not around hand-outs, but putting Americans back to work.  Yes, there will still be historic foreclosure and default rates.  The homeowner hangover must be worked through.  Yet throwing more printed government money at a solution that took a decade to make is also irresponsible.

 

Of the 55 million mortgages in the USA, the approximately 11 million in stress or foreclosure is cause for great concern.  However, what about those households who have been responsible and paid their bills even though their homes are underwater?  The disadvantaged need to be helped without any doubt, but more handouts to stimulate a market that is need of drastic rework is not a good answer either. 

 

Too many are still profiting from the suffering of others without any material changes being made to the supply chain of mortgage operations (i.e., origination, servicing, and securitization).

 

Jobs, reworking of the GSE’s (permanent rework and breakup) is good set of goals that cannot be glossed over by politicians or industry lobbyist.  Regulation can only prevent – not solve – an existing crisis.  If jobs and industries cannot be stimulated, then does that mean the debt = GDP levels of today should now be increased 20% or 35%? 

 

I understand the concern and empathize – but more programs and easy money is not the issue.  After all if we take away the pillars of capitalism and risks, then what is left to allow market forces (now global) to behave as they should?