Archive for the ‘Commoditization’ Category

Looking Back at the Strategy of Why Some Succeed — and Many Fail

Monday, March 15th, 2010

by Mark P. Dangelo

www.Innovative-Relevance.com

It was a decade ago, at the peak of the NASDAQ Composite, that the world began to truly comprehend the potential of the “nets” (i.e., Internet, intranets, extranets, and more recently the “clouds” and mobile 4G).  As new firms rose to trailblazer prominence (e.g., Amazon, AOL, Atomic Tangerine, Egg, and others), the phrase “brick and mortar” increasingly became linked with traditional, unwieldy, hierarchical, and candidly, resistant to change enterprises “destined to go the path of the dinosaur.” 

Yet, what was once dismissed out-of-hand (i.e., layering[i]) is now set to become a top-5 strategy challenge for every management team, vendor, and outsourcer surviving in this decade.  A critical question remains if organizations have the vision and humility to leverage the past, while innovating for the future.

A Decade for the Record Books

Since 2000, the removal of the old became a classic win-lose corporate context framed by:

·         enterprise solutions (e.g., SAP, Oracle, and PeopleSoft),

·         consultants, outsourcers, and advisors (e.g., Accenture, TCS, ACS, and McKinsey), and

·         channel-specific solution providers (e.g., Cisco, Sun, and IBM). 

Within the finance and mortgage groups (FMG’s), the implementation value chain solutions became inverted with technology ideals frequently trumping business models, as volume, any volume drove people, and processes over sound management judgment. 

Inadvertently, brick and mortar principles were perceived as outdated and discarded as organizations chased the markets – and the most debt-laden homeowner in history.  With 2010 set to produce the largest volume of delinquencies and foreclosures on record perpetuated by a jobless recovery (9%-10% until late 2011), the surface indicators might support the frustration that once again, we need to start over.  Throw out the legacy models and lessons learned in favor of new approaches and technologies.

Today, pundits declare that the FDIC interventions, TARP injections, and Federal Reserve market actions are merely perpetuating the foundational decay long hidden within traditional FMG’s, operating on axioms defined back in the 1930’s. 

The belief remains that the greatest financial meltdown ever (in real USD lost) was just waiting to happen.  It could not be stopped even if we understood what “irrational exuberance” really meant.  All it needed for the traditional firms to fail were vast real estate bubbles spread across developed nations to provide the spark that lead to the vanishing of 10%-12% of global wealth (since 2007).

Learning, Layering, and Looking Forward

Indeed it is time for sustainable change, new ideas, fresh industry blood, and elimination of systems that benefited so few.  So, why reexamine 20th Century principles that have already been cast aside by 21st Century attitudes and doctrines?  In a virtually connected world that never sleeps, who needs brick and mortar dogma when continuous technological innovation is what consumers are demanding?  Why indeed. 

Nevertheless, when examining those “Jurassic” systems with their layers of front and back office control procedures, history has now shown that the brick and mortar strategic operating principles remained very viable and stable.  When glancing backwards, it is the techniques and underlying implementation methods that have been permanently transformed (see Figure 1 for a list of principles, demands, and techniques). 

As portrayed in Figure 1, it is precisely those brick and mortar operations that not only survived (albeit slightly dented), but continue to grow – JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America to name but a few.  Moreover, each FMG holds valuable lessons learned — as well as publically exposed pitfalls.  If the U.S., like the new stress test ordered for the UK banking community, enters a pause or retracing of economic growth in 2010 (i.e., double bottom), the value g leaned from the surviving FMG brick and mortar principles may be the difference between survival – and receivership.

Layering Tackles Strategy, Complexity, and Uncertainty

Layering for 2010-2013 is best defined as the utilization of principle driven models (i.e., process, business, and technology across the mortgage pillars of origination, servicing, and securitization).  This often missed strategic approach allows organizations to employ the “best-in-class” solutions, products, and services even if they might be viewed as competitive (see Figure 2). 

It is the assembly of these “building blocks” that provides the distinction and profitability so badly demanded within struggling FMG’s.  Stated more pointedly, how many of those “pure-play” offerings survive after just five years?  With VC investments now just 30%-35% of 2006 levels, you only have to look at their investment web pages to notice the portfolio rot driven by a failure to anticipate consumer change and uncertainty. 

If truth be told, the deployment of layering is inherent within all viable business models – domestic or global – as their usage surrounds the assembly of strategies, processes, technology, and people.  Analogous to the building of a foundation with stone, cement, and metal, the use of layering for sustainable business resonates with profitable innovators.  It is now fundamental criteria in investor minds as well.

As shown in Figure 2, if the “foundation” of layers cannot be assembled properly (e.g., the laying of brick for a wall meeting industry “building codes”), the ensuing channels, offerings, and markets will collapse onto the basement floor – much like investors in RMBS and CMBS experienced during the last four years.  Yet, are organizations fully equipped with the skills and abilities to critically examine the successes and failures?  What about the performance of partners and channel providers?  Or will it become a situation where teams are sent out to perform “bring me a rock” analysis?

Stated bluntly for those who still fail to see the building block challenge and financial opportunities, if everyone utilizes the same standards and electronic delivery strategies, how come everyone isn’t equally successful?  The aforementioned are merely the vehicles of delivery – not the layering of complex business requirements that if assembled wrong, lead to failure.  In some cases, career ending failure.

In Closing

If you have any doubts on the strategy of business and technology layering, then take a look at the survivors from the companies previously mentioned.  What were the key principles that lead them as pathfinders succeed and adapt, while others failed or were acquired?  Did they lack technology, people or the “right” idea?  Did they shun brick and mortar principles entirely or selectively apply the fundamentals that worked for their business operations and technological implementations?  Did they let their egos drive their actions?

So now, 10 years after the great market corrections of 2000, it is the innovative business leaders who are gleaning safe and sound practices from the old brick and mortar.  For vendors and outsourcers, those operational leaders that can deliver scalable, interoperability layers of processes and technologies will be the household names across the industry.  How many will act?  How many will continue to be froze in place holding on to the ideals misplaced and misrepresented?  We can all think of a few.

Enterprises (i.e., the core business, their vendors, and outsourcing providers) able to rapidly adapt to changing consumer needs, and more recently, radical mutations of homeowner behaviors will be able to weather any downturn or changing market conditions.  It seems the lessons and principles of the past have become the guides of the future.

Funny, sometimes to go positively forward, you must start out in reverse. 



[i] Analogous to a “method of propagating plants by covering a branch or shoot with soil so that it takes root while still attached to the parent plant.”

In a Word, “GlobalBorderMalevolence”

Tuesday, February 16th, 2010

By Mark P. Dangelo

www.Innovative-Relevance.com

It has been repeatedly said that, “Desperate times call for…,” well you know the rest.  With a weak economic recovery underway, many domestic financial leaders are trying to navigate unchartered territories, while endeavoring to avoid collisions with unique business obstacles – regulators, politicians, depositors, investors, and global capital markets. 

With nearly 7 million domestic jobs lost in 32 months it may be 6 to 12 years before they can be replaced with equal paying positions — if history is any guide.  The embers of technology investment are seducing many to believe the recovery is here – but is it a recovery that includes domestic workforces? 

Moreover, with trillions USD in deficits piling up and an escalating trade war beginning (all but in name) with the U.S.’s largest creditor, can technology investment be sustainable especially for a mortgage market still under duress? 

If origination volume in 2010 is estimated to be one-third of the levels from 2006 and with REO properties held in reserve equaling or surpassing the number of listed ones (another 8 to 10 months of supply), have we reached an equilibrium – or is there more to come? 

Yes, as my mother used to say when I was a child, “You ask a lot of questions.”  But these days, with so many “experts” at every corner, I feel compelled to query even more. 

Perhaps a fable will help frame the concerns I have when it comes to the slippery slope of regulation and the hidden dangers subsequently facing the outsourcing industry over the next 18 months (within finance and mortgage markets (FMM) for onshore and offshore business process and technology outsourcing).  My fable is titled, “GlobalBorderMalevolence.”

“It is often those nasty ‘unintended consequences’ that linger on long after the deeds are done.  For example, with nearly half-a-dozen global regulatory discussions on going and increased taxes or fees nearly certain for financial lenders, won’t that create additional pressures to margins, profits, and an ability to lend? 

If fees cannot be passed on either due to competition or regulation, then the obvious answer is cutting costs.  For the last two decades, institutions have sought cost reduction and avoidance via outsourcing of functions to developing countries with lower wages and educated classes of laborers.

Therefore, will not an implication of cost cutting demand further shifting of knowledge jobs from west to east in an attempt to keep profits stable to meet investor and regulator solvency demands?  Will not that have an impact on FMM domestic employment moving forward?  If employers shift higher-paying functions to cheaper locales, does that not then mean less tax basis to offset rising regulatory costs and a Federal budget? 

So when jobs are lost, now do we need then a ‘jobs bill’ to protect domestic workforces from disenfranchisement indirectly created from the very issues that taxpayers were seeking relief from – unemployment, lack of credit, or foreclosure?   If we need a jobs bill, then don’t we also need protection from those ‘nasty’ outsourcers who are ‘exporting the future of our economy?’ 

So why not put an extra surcharge or tax on outsourcers and the firms they represent to ensure that labor arbitrage cannot be utilized to improve margins from those bankers who seek to reward themselves with huge bonuses?

If the Indian outsourcing industry increases at their projected 2010-2011 rate of growth approaching 15%, while domestic unemployment still exceeds 9.7%, doesn’t this mean that outsourcing is a perfect industry to target by regulators and politicians? 

After all if outsourcers are growing offshore by shifting jobs west to east then are they not taking advantage of global imbalances created by currencies and export-driven state sponsorships?  Aren’t they equally culpable as much as those ‘bad’ bankers who started the whole mess in the first place? 

On the other hand, if outsourcers have let’s say 25% to 35% of their delivery capability taking place onshore in domestic centers of excellence, should they be treated the same as a service or technology provider who has only sales forces within the borders?  Moreover, what should be done to rebalance the labor arbitrage differences for domestic firms who provide outsourcing service offshore but claim U.S. headquarters?

So goes the circular references and the convoluted requirements for even more regulation to determine who and what is being done to whom.  Furthermore, if you start at one point in the value-chain, why not transcend all the way downstream to punish everyone who is making a profit as a result of changes created at the beginning of the chain?  Is this regulation approach really about free-trade and open borders – or retribution and politics?

Besides, why stop there?  What about any third-party partners involved in JV’s?  How about technology solution sets and innovation needed to streamline processes, driving out costs, and displacing workers?  Should anything and anyone that eliminates a domestic job not be ‘punished?’

Taking it to extremes, would market competition that arises between industries and their representatives also not fall under this disguise?  If competing standards disadvantaged or displaced one interest group, should they not seek regulatory protection against the other? 

What if secondary group demands created disintermediation within the origination and servicing institutions?  Should they not be then regulated to stop their impacts on BAU and jobs?”

Whereas the fable may be a little “cheeky,” its intended seriousness is not to be dismissed.  These hidden exothermic consequences are growing increasingly likely not just domestically, but within the EU and even within the Asian provider countries themselves. 

Let’s also be very clear, that each side of the outsourcing equation has responsibilities that they have not lived up to in the past.  The firestorm of criticism from many practicing xenophobia is fueled by those outsourcing firms seeking to “take orders” — playing into simple labor arbitrage needs and continually advocating the business model of moving jobs from west to east.  These players still exist and are easily identified by their token domestic presence. 

Conversely, without outsourcing to provide leverage and scale, not to mention aggregation of highly complex and specialized skills that cannot be efficiently integrated with traditionally organic approaches, industry innovation would not have been as great as we might think. 

Why?  Because the savings achieved by using global workforces would not have facilitated investments in other innovations needed – fraud, automated valuations, analytics, data mining, interoperable standards, and the list goes on.  Stated another way, by using outsourcing for delivering commodity transactions in origination and servicing, investments in more specialized and complex functionalities could be made.  They were made.

Outsourcing has benefited not just lenders, but homeowners, investors, regulators, and those seeking political advantage.  It will continue to be a integral part of our process and technological solutions fabric.  However, its usefulness can no longer be thought of as mere “exports” or “imports” by anyone within FMM’s. 

There are polarizing factions that are escalating the rhetoric – they whisper “GlobalBorderMalevolence.”  Perhaps this feeling of disenfranchisement has best been characterized by the creators of Comedy Central’s South Park, “They took our Jobs!”  True, unchecked outsourcing based on mere arbitrage is not beneficial long-term to either party.  Conversely, so is no outsourcing.

Just like bankers who are “bad,” the outsourcing industry should not be thinking BAU.  Xenophobia has arrived as a new form of nationalism.  Domestic or foreign firms with sizable local, heterogeneous workforces (i.e., not imported H1B’s within domestic borders) will be the best positioned to not only avoid this coming battle, but also profit from it.  Integrated, domestic workforce outsourcers will be the survivors – and some very large international providers are already embracing a new business model. 

* * * * * * * *

Undeniably, Humpty Dumpty has had a great fall.  No amount of regulation, central bankers (i.e., Kings), or TARP bailouts (i.e., the King’s horses and men) will ever remake the fragility of an egg that tempted fate and spurned consequences by ignoring the market risks (i.e., the wall).  The fall the FMM Humpty Dumpty was a “splat heard round the world.”

As a final point, the U.S. Administrations’ position on outsourcing and globalization has also become increasingly intriguing.  For example, much has been read into Larry Summers, White House Chief Economic advisor, recent speech at Davos as he cited, “the case for free trade might not apply when countries were trading with nations that were pursuing mercantilist policies.[i]  Even if this particular challenge was directed at one particular country, could it not be also used against others within the same region covering both products and services?

So you see the challenge for lenders and their outsourcing providers will be buried across many nouns– xenophobia, jingoism, patriotism, nationalism, protectionism, and even cultural intolerance.  The noun you select depends on your preference in the on-going debate.  So as new regulation sets in motion the need for increased efficiencies, an implication of what they demand will lay the foundation for yet more regulation and national debates – just farther down into the value chain of mortgage and financial delivery. 

As Abraham Lincoln once said, “A house divided against itself cannot stand.  I do not believe that the house will remain divided – it will either cease to be divided,” or its foundations will wither collapsing the entire structure and advancements onto itself.  But will free-market capitalism prevail?  Will outsourcers stumble on their own past success?  Will they seek to empathize with their domestic clients, and the escalating pressures they face?

This debate has only just begun – and it potential consequences are very, very scary.  



[i] “How the Bottom Fell Out of ‘Old’ Davos,” Gideon Richman, Financial Times, February 2, 2010.

2009, the Year of the Micro Business

Thursday, January 15th, 2009

By Mark P. Dangelo

www.Innovative-Relevance.com  

Just look around.  The stats and stark realities are everywhere – approximately 3 million jobs vanish, up to $40 trillion of global wealth lost, thousands of billions in pledged worldwide government spending, and a pessimism that is as vicious and perverse as it is severe. 

Factor in the $50 to $75 billion in global fraud that is being revealed coupled with public handouts to “bailout” poor business practices, and there is little likelihood that “big business” will be the engines needed to drive growth in 2009-2010.  More than likely, these now quasi-government institutions will be substantial sources of job losses during the next 24 months.

As a substitute, 2009 -2010 will witness the meteoric rise of the micro-business linked under integrated banners to meet changing world and consumer needs.  There importance grows from the perishable foundations of monolithic, ineffective business operations that have decayed beyond their ability to repair themselves, and raise huge sums of capital needed for innovation supporting new consumer compositions. 

Commonly linked micro businesses also can survive the global protectionism that will be forthcoming as trade agreements are revised and nationalistic demands and tariffs are expanded (e.g., India, Russia, EU, U.S., South America, et al).  Moreover, huge Keynesian promotions will seek to benefit local, nimble domestic institutions and “disadvantage” those multi-nationals that call a foreign exchange home. 

The dawn of the fifth iteration of globalization will yield a new age of micro businesses that are linked underneath a common operating umbrella.  Analogous to what Amazon and eBay did for the retail industries over a decade ago, the winners of 2009 and beyond will be those enterprises that band nimbly together using an orchestrated, collaborative approach to solve today’s challenges. 

The benefits of integration with a micro business suite are growing as 2009 kicks off.  With widespread unemployment and fear gripping executive offices (i.e., deer in the headlights), micro-businesses offer great advantages for existing operations.  How?

·         The once sacrosanct core structures and margins may be considerably improved using micro-businesses as compared to the comprehensive costs of internal hiring, retaining, or firing of FTE’s. 

·         There is a greater flexibility with client pursuits and staffing outcomes to reach operational goals, initiatives, or consumers.

·         Faster market response time and integration of highly specialized skills (e.g., risk management).

·         Improved accountability for the “micro team” given their specialized composition and defined goals — much like a surgical operation.

·         When the goals or needs change, the organizational burden is minimized – e.g., specialized accounting analysis for FDIC regulations on using TARP funds (e.g., sources, uses, analytics).

·         If the endeavors / pilots work out, there is an ability to hire discrete employees or purchase the micro business for longer term expansion.

·         It increases market presence for a minimal risk – thinking outside of the box while allowing relevant innovation into client and consumer interactions (i.e., think holistically, act discretely).

·         Micro partnerships represent the rehabilitation of markets and offerings for established organizations. 

·         The client offerings today and tomorrow are about interconnectivity of ideas needed to address and solve specific and immediate challenges – not just strategy or outsourcing.

·         Just as micro financing has spurred great success, micro-business integration will also be favored in the new operating climates both domestically and globally.  It has become politically, economically, and ethically correct.

There are many additional discrete benefits that can be added and niches that could be highlighted.  We’ll leave those for another day and your specific circumstance.  However, don’t confuse loosely-coupled micro-business integration with traditional partnerships, collaboration, or joint ventures.  They are light years apart.  A real world model of micro-business integration success can be found with established, large (and profitable) Asian orchestrators like Hong Kong based Li & Fung.  It is apparent that the East has much to teach the West.

It should be noted that the use of micro-business integration involves an experimentation paradox.  What works and who works well together won’t be fully known until the integration efforts are underway.  Options available are frequently never known unless an open and candid dialogue is undertaken with various micro-businesses and the client / consumer prospects themselves.  A risk many domestic management teams do not comprehend – hence that is why they are inherently disadvantaged especially during a deep, long recession.

What is certain as pundits and vendors discuss “leadership” and “innovation” in the media, is that the new rules of engagement will be written by others – the micro-operators banded together for a common cause.  The old discussions just don’t have much efficacy anymore.  The year or perhaps decade of the micro-business has begun.